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Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2018 Analysis Future Trends

Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2018 Analysis & Market Trends

The first property boom in Pakistan occurred during 2003-2006, whereas second real estate boom lasted from 2012 to 2016. Both property booms resulted in inflating the real estate prices and were followed by a crash. If we see the last boom, things started changing in 2016 after the increase in property taxes. The next wave came in form of crackdown on black money. Now new tax reforms 2018 have crashed the real estate market. Here is the Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2018 Analysis & Prices.

PART 1: Factors Impacting Pakistan Real Estate Sector
Source of Income

Everyone knows the Panama Papers Case Decision announced by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. This decision has huge impact on Pakistan real estate sector as the case was about the properties. Decision has made it clear that no citizen can keep assets beyond means. Now onward all Pakistani who buy properties have to answer about the source of income. This decision has totally blocked the influx of black money into reality sector due to which real estate prices will fall sharply.

New Tax Reforms

The new tax reforms are taxpayer friendly, as only those people will be rewarded who pay taxes. According to the new tax reforms non-filers cannot buy property worth 50 LAC or more. But real question is how many tax payers can buy properties of worth 50 LAC? The only buyers of high end properties in Pakistan were the people with black money. As new tax reforms have blocked the black money investment in real estate sector so high-end properties will see massive price crash.

NAB Probing Property Scams

Property scams and frauds are very common in Pakistan. According to the chairman of NAB, most cases are related to real estate scams. There are thousands of illegal housing schemes in Pakistan. Due to the property scams many people have lost their lifetime savings. Many societies have been restrained from sale or purchase of properties. This has resulted in low investments in real estate sector. Due to low investments we can see the price fall.

PART 2: Price Trends Pakistan Real Estate forecast 2018
Expected Price Fall

Currently property prices are 30% down since 2016. The total expected price fall is 70% from 2016 peak, so another 40% price crash is on the way. For example a property was worth 100 LAC in 2016. In few months it will fall to 30-40 LAC. Is it unrealistic? No this has happened in 2006 when 1 Kanal plot price in DHA Phase 5 Lahore crashed from 150 LAC to 45 Lac. As non filers can’t buy property worth 50 LAC or over so we will see massive real estate price fall across Pakistan.

Price Fall will not be same everywhere

Real estate worth up to 50 LAC will be less affected by new reforms as non filers can buy these properties. But properties worth more than 50 LAC will be hit harder as very few tax payers will be able to buy them. So property worth 50 LAC will be crash proof whereas property worth more than 50 LAC will be the real victim of tax reforms. Similarly the areas that have high speculation and no real demand will see big price crash. On the other hand areas with real demand and low speculation will be less affected.

The Right Time to Buy Properties

According to new reforms there are two types of buyers. Firstly people who want to buy property worth less than 5 Million can buy it immediately as market will be mostly stable due to good demand for small property of worth less than 5 million. But people who want to buy property worth more than 5 million should wait as chances of price fall are more. The buyers of high-end properties should wait till the 4th quarter of 2018.

Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2019


  1. Hussain

    on said  

    Core tips for investment in property:

    1. The base price of any city plot is between 1 lac to 2 lac per Marla. Any investment close to this is bound to appreciate over time. And anyone investing at a 5 lac and above per Marla may get the hit, if price reverses.

    2. Never buy a property on the recommendation of property dealers alone. Rather do your own research work, do the comparatives and start small, buy in steps spanning over months and keep your portfolio mix spread out to several areas.

    3. Invest only in the prime location areas having the potential to habitat organically. Here you need to visualize and use your imagination.

    4. Avoid rural property investments.

    5. KPK migration was massive into Rwp, Lhr and Kyc, during the previous years due to Taliban war, that created a boom in these cities and fall in the KPK properties.

    6. Rural youth migration to the cities is another factor, that triggers property prices increase in the cities. Now Naya Pakistan housing has diverted them.

    7. Huge foreign remittances have found ways into the property market.

    Now the property market is down, due the following main factors:

    a. New taxes have driven most of the new buyers out.

    b. The property dealers who were holding hundreds of plot files are throwing the plots for sale on rock bottom prices, because they were playing a speculative game for quick gain, which was a gamble.

    c. Crack down on the riches have further forced them to keep away from the market.

    This cycle of down turn shall touch the bottom by July/August 2019, and a gradual recovery shall start, why, because so many construction related industries are hard hit and all hands down, and their cries on the govt. is growing.

  2. Malik SB
    I have a question for you.What is your guesstimate that when real estate sector will start moving in upward direction. Let me put in this way I am happy that price is coming down for real estate but some of my friends live abroad and would like to invest in Pakistan esp. In property but they are afraid as well might be their investment could sunk so they would like to know when the real estate market will start pick up. Especially after Bahria Karachi fiasco everyone is afraid. Cheers

  3. Mohammed Asif

    on said  

    Sir I am interested to buy a land for my industry.

    In S.I.T.E area of Karachi where according to estate agents prices are still increasing day by day

    Please advise me what should I do wait or try to make a deal because within two years prices jump approx 60% and the advise of estate agent is places are very less in market to sell so forget of market crash in this area

      • Mohammed Asif

        on said  

        Malik Anwar Sahib

        Thanks for replying

        I am interested to purchase industrial land in old habib bank site near shershah.

        because our labour and markets are near to it

        please advise about the market of site near shershah

        and also inform that northern by pass and site II is same or different areas

      • Mohammed Asif

        on said  

        Assalam O Alikum

        Malik Sahib I need your guidance

        I have purchased land in Site Habib Bank Karachi at the time of deal seller didn’t inform us that original lease deed and agreement to assign between SITE Ltd and first owner have been lost and misplaced.

        after paying token money they draft sale agreement with there lawyer in which they silently mentioned that these documents are lost and we informed buyer and buyer has no objection, in that column they mention that they will provide true copy of first lease deed which is accepted by buyer (which we even didn’t know) and they where pressing us trust us sign sale agreement because lawyer is going tomorrow out of Pakistan see us leave agreement but we insist that we have to discuss with our lawyer after showing our lawyer we came to know that these documents are missing.

        So please guide either is it safe to purchase this property which sale deed is lost and they are providing true copy insist of original

    • Mohammed Asif

      on said  

      In Jan 2019 price in Site Phase 2 was 35000000 for half acre and suddenly in Mar 2019 prices increase and became 70000000 for half acre

      sir i can’t understand how and what happened that prices of plot 100% increase

  4. Sir whats the current situation now.. market is slow but prices are still high. Whats ur say on this.. will prices go down in near future??

  5. Muhamamd azeem uddin

    on said  

    Dear Zahid ali,

    Nice to see you after a long time. your views and analysis always welcome.
    Thank you once again and keep in touch ,, which help us to understand more about property market.

    Any one can not give 100% correct prediction but an intelligent farmer see the atmosphere behavior and then decide for the same manner an intelligent property investor see the market situation and then invest ,

    sir your analysis are very fruitful for the reader.

  6. Ali Naqvi

    on said  

    Team GHAR47
    I am estate agent working in DHA LAHORE Phase 1 since 1998. So almost 20 years of real estate experience.
    I admit that market is worst in my lifetime.
    The situation is more bad than 2006.
    GHAR47 i am regular reader of your blog.
    You have reported according to the market.
    100s agencies are no more in the market.
    Market is dead never seen before.
    I have no sale of property in last 15 months.
    But alhamdulillah surviving on rent deals.
    I have sold my home and two cars. I am on rent now.
    I invested in Bahria Town Karachi and lost my life saving.
    Many estate agents from Lahore shifted to BTK but now are back.
    Same is with Gwadar.
    I still feel lucky that I can afford home and office rent.
    During last 6 months DHA Lahore market is 35 percent down.
    Now another issue.
    White money buyer.
    Deal are not maturing as sellers are living in dream land.
    Intelligent people have reduced the prices and have moved the money.
    My experience tells me that its a trailler. Horror movie is coming.
    Property market is down and not same as it was in older days.
    My friend told me that a owner of 5 plots in DHA PHASE 8 has died because of heart attack.
    Dealers have no income so riding uber cream cars.
    People who say market is ok have no information about the real situation of market.
    Many sites and news papers are busy in fooling the people.
    One of my friend who lost all his life saving is now running a Kariana store.
    Problem with estate agents like me are that we never remain estate agents but feel it pride to be investors.
    This greed is the reason of our down fall.
    Last months 6 deals were left as seller wanted white money transaction through banks.
    Hard to find white money buyers in Pakistan.
    I feel golden days of property sector are no more.
    DAWN NEWS rightly predicted few months back what is happening in the market.

    • muhamamd azeem uddin

      on said  

      Dear Brother Ali naqvi,

      it is very deeply sad me to read your views and losses. i pray to god to recover you (BOUNCE BACK) from financial crises.

      my daughter is a motivation speaker and she is working to make pakistan is become richest nation of the world. she says to me that when i she have to know any person going to poor or crises it means pakistan is becoming poor.

      i pray to Allah to recover you on this crises period and once again you become financial freedom.

      lastly i will say that before doing every investment look the dynamic aspect. not put all Eags in one basket.

    • Malik

      on said  

      brother sad for the above you have mentioned and wish u get back on track soon. just for info why you had invested in Karachi while the market in Lahore was always hot during last few years? while you were sitting in DHA Lahore and convincing others to invest in Lahore.

      • Ali Naqvi

        on said  

        Brother Malik
        Market was not good in 2017. I like other people invested in Bahria Karachi. I also invested the money of my investors. So paid loss after selling home cars. Same situation for other people who lost money.
        Always be careful with your money as most agents lie. Estate agents have different rate to buy property and different to seel.
        Be carefull brother.
        Allah Pak sab ko halal kamane ke tofeeq de.

        • Malik

          on said  

          thanks for good wishes dear, but still it is not clear how you invested your customers money in Karachi? agents can only advise, I mean If I have to invest a money in real estate I can get advice from dealers and then it is my decision to invest or not and I am responsible for its loss and profit and no one is responsible to pay me back.

          • Ali Naqvi

            on said  

            Brother malik
            There are many investors who give money on profit margins. I collected 2 crore from investors on 20 percent for 10 months. My bad luck prices went down 30 percent. So I lost 50 percent in total. The contract was of profit not of loss share too.
            I am still happy that I paid loan to investors.
            This is that I say be careful with money.
            Lost of site and dealers will never told you market bad things.
            If you are sell property sell as prices will fall more.
            If you want buy stop not good time.
            All dealera say that property price keep down till 2020.
            Lets see what happens
            Allah save all of us.

    • Zahid Ali

      on said  

      Dear Mr. Ali Naqvi

      You described the conclusion of real estate agents problem very effectively in one line

      Problem with estate agents like me are that we never remain estate agents but feel it pride to be investors.

      I don’t understand that how you lost all your life savings in Bahia Town Karachi whereas the current price of most of the properties in Bahia town Karachi are above purchasing price.

      • Ali Naqvi

        on said  

        Zahid Bhai
        Bahria Karachi market is not stable. I was unlucky as market lost 30 percent price. So I paid investors by selling home cars.

    • Ahmad

      on said  

      Sorry to hear about your financial loss. But one thing I learned from all this real estate business fiasco that if someone has no other option except to invest in real estate than its better to invest in ready made homes rather than in plots. My 2 cents!

  7. Nazish Fatime

    on said  

    Dear sir,
    i have read your blog regularly and really it is very informative.

    Regarding real esate prices in pakistan : Being a member of S.I.T.E association and running a factory i have seen that the market have jumped abnormally and no doubts 3005 to 350% if i talk about all industrial area like S.I.T.E , korangi industrial area and north karachi ind area , FB ind area, as well S.I.T.E. phase 1 and 2.

    if we compare the return of profit from business no doubts one can not imagine , so mostly industry owner have stop inevstment in factories and have started to invest money in property market.

    Sir my question is from you : How this possible profit of margin reach 350% ??Their is no line of business that has return like this. it means their is somethings wrong.

    and it also proves that when market is behave wrongly then you can say it is gambling and nothing else and it will return back most powerfully. my father told me that at 1990 the investment companies have comes in market and offering people big returns and then they disappear.people have lost their whole life income.

    kindly also pointed out that why and who are behind this game and should not it will be the next picture of investment company.

    • Nazish Fatima
      This happens worldwide when agricultural land is converted for housing, commercial or industrial uses. Nothing new.
      But property prices of houses, flats, apartments, plots are down.
      DHA Karachi is the worst hit area.
      So is Bahria Town.
      In DHA Karachi there is a new crisis. The crisis to find a filer buyer.
      Can you compare the facilities or city situation of Karachi and LAHORE?
      Why DHA Plot or house prices are higher in Karachi?
      Massive black money investment.
      Higher the prices more the price fall.

  8. Zahid Ali

    on said  

    Dear Mr Malik

    The above link elaborate the decade cycle of dha explained by Mr. Shafi Jakwani of citiassociates who is in the market for more than 30 years.

    This is clear that in every decade cycle, first market make a high and then make a low. Then why in this decade cycle, market will not make a low?

    I agree that market may speculate again in 2023/2024 and i think market price will not increase drastically before 2023/2024. Then why one should invest now in the market? Why not enter in market in 2023?

    The investors who invested in the market before 2013-2016 speculation and sold the property before 2016 crash are most fortunate.

    The investors who invested in the market before 2013-2016 speculation and still have the property may be considered fortunate (but not most fortunate) or unfortunate depending on the selling price and selling time when they will sell the property.

    The investors who invested in the market just before the crash of 2016 and still have the property are least fortunate (or unfortunate), since they already loose time value of money for 2 years (2016-2018). Now either they have to sell their property now in loss or have to wait upto 2023/2024. In the later case, they have to further loose time value of money (2018-2023). Keeping in mind that interest rate may increase to 15 percent upto the end of 2019.

    The decade cycle usually cover 80-90 percent properties however 10-20 percent exception in properties always there which may increase or decrease against the tide.

    The above comments are only related to geniune properties not for scams.

    • Malik

      on said  

      dear for investment purpose property is 4-5 yrs game now, timing is important and it does not jump or fall overnight, if some one wants to wait till 22/23 its his choice but rates will not be same it gradually increases before it takes big jump. mostly we miss the train by waiting till last moment.
      15 %interest is not possible in near future, secondly due to rupee de evaluation it reduces the value of capital. so never keep money in bank for profit gains. but remember property is 4-5 yrs game its not stock exchange and should not be calculated on daily monthly or yearly basis.
      I remember I purchased phase 9 file on 20 lac in 2008, in 2011 it was on 16/17 but now worth 6 times more than that. so property covers the slump period automatically if some one has patience.

      • Zahid Ali

        on said  

        This is not true that all the time that real estate is the game of 4 to 5 years. Sometime it may be true. Like the person who purchased property in 2016 (jusr before crash) can not earn profit in upto 2021, even may be he would have to sell his property in loss in 2021. There are always some percentage of exception in properties which price may flow against he tide.

        15% interest rate is possible as it was in 2009 and it may be repeated in 2019 as the inflation is soaring and interest rate are increasing all over the world.

        If amybody wish to avoid rupee devaluation then he musr purchase dollar instead of property as after 2016 property value decreases 30 percent and dollar increases 20 percent so the net difference in 50 percent. This formula is also not valid for all the time like 2013-2016 period, when property prooved to be best as compared to dollar.

        Dollar may be devalued further and go to 130-135, at the end of this year or in the beginning of 2019. Then the time come when maximum profit can be earned through fixed deposit in pakistan for next 4 to 5 years.

        Gold is the 2nd option to earn maximum profit in next five years if someone invested.

        Real estate bubble always takes time (upto 5 years) to deflate, and it is on sliding phase so it is not prudent to invest in real estate at this point of time.

        This is my opinion and anybody may differ from my opinion.

    • Zahid Ali
      Yes there is a decade cycle for real estate sector.
      Things are repeating after 10 years time.
      Last property boom lasted from 2003-2006 where as current boom lasted from 2013-2016
      Property prices started falling in 2006 and 2016
      Property prices were record low in 2009. So as we can foresee that property prices will be record low in 2019.
      After crash property prices started picking up in 2013. So next expected boom will start by 2023.
      During crash of 2006 black money was not targeted.
      But now black money is hit hard.
      A Prime minster has been jailed for keep assets beyond means.
      Other money launderers have been nailed.
      This has really reduced the black money investments in property market.
      So this property price crash will be the mother of all crashes.

  9. Farooq Lari

    on said  

    Salaam Sir, i asked one month ago about your take on Lake City prices and was told to hold for few months Q3 2018 for price fall. However as per latest listing by Zameen on 10.07.2018 (tabled below), prices in Lake City have increased by 10-15% which is totally opposite to what you have predicted. Your advice to wait and watch for price fall has backfired 🙁

    10 marla 7,200,000—8,000,000
    12 marla 7,500,000—8,500,000
    14 marla 8,000,000—10,000,000
    1 kanal 15,000,000—16,500,000
    2 kanal 40,000,000—45,000,000

    1 kanal 12,000,000—16,000,000

    M-2 A
    10 marla 7,500,000—9,000,000

    1 kanal 14,000,000—16,000,000

    M-3 A
    12 marla 8,000,000—9,000,000
    14 marla 9,000,000—10,000,000
    1 kanal 12,500,000—16,500,000

    M-3 Extension
    10 marla 7,500,000—9,000,000

    1 kanal 15,000,000—20,000,000
    2 kanal 45,000,000—75,000,000

    10 marla 7,000,000—8,000,000

    M-7 A
    7 marla 6,000,000—6,500,000

    M-7 B
    5 marla 4,500,000—5,000,000

    5 marla 3,200,000—4,000,000
    7 marla 4,500,000—5,500,000

    • Malik

      on said  

      dear i have my investment in lake city, it is best for end users only, not for investment purpose. On ground possession plots to be preferred on files or installment plots.

    • Farooq Lari
      Asking price is what sellers want but selling price is what buyers pay to buy property. Asking price has no value as you can ask whatever value you want to ask. Real price is the selling price on which properties are sold out.
      Websites are just quoting the asking price not the selling price.
      In 2016 daily file transfer in DHA LAHORE was approximately 180-200 files. But now just 5-15 files.
      According to dealers who have worked in DHA since 1997, property prices are 35 down alone this year.
      Since 1 July 2018 non filers can’t buy property worth 5 million or more. So there is already an affordability crisis in Pakistan. Its really hard to find a filer buyer who has white money. PAKISTAN property prices are high inflated and will see massive correction.
      A- Property worth less than 5 million has good demand as non filers can buy it.
      B- High end properties are hit hard as non filers can’t buy property of worth 5 million or more.
      DUBAI was a safe heaven for black money investors. But due to new laws by amnesty international there is crackdown on black money in Dubai. Now property prices are just 25% of what they were once in Dubai.
      PAKISTAN is facing the same crisis.
      PANAMA CASE was about FLATS.
      Now onward no PAKISTANI can buy property with black money.
      This will totally crash the price of high end properties.

      • Malik

        on said  

        we overseas are main investors of property in Pakistan and we are running the market with our hard earned money which is white and there is no issue for overseas to become filler showing zero return. so its not only black money which is stuck in your mind.
        with new rules one can not buy bike or car without being a filler. so there is no question that filler will be less. every one has to be filler soon which is positive for country. Barrier of 5 million will be finished soon as soon as IK comes in power or who ever comes.

        • Malik
          Overseas Pakistanis can buy 1 KANAL Plot in DHA LAHORE of price 3 crore? Very strange
          They bought plots when prices were low like in 2009-2013.
          Overseas PAKISTANIS are living on rent in DUBAI why they don’t buy flats there to save the monthly rent?
          80% economy is the shadow economy in PAKISTAN.
          So 80% investors of reality sector are with black money.
          So massive price fall.

          • Malik

            on said  

            apki soch ha, people are having 2-3 commercial plots in DHAs and homes built in Dha worth more than your expectation. if you can not buy anything do not think same for others. overseas everywhere living on rent and have invested in their own countries and getting much better as compared to overseas investment which is more risky as no one knows when they will change the law and people can get stuck with hard earned money.
            I think you have some personal issues with real estate and especially high value properties, May b those have gone out of your range.

        • Zahid Ali

          on said  

          Dear Mr. Malik

          Like inland pakistanis, majority of overseas (more or less 90%) pakistanis are from labour class and they can hardly purchase a low cost plot with their whole life savings.

          The less than 10% overseas Pakistanis are investing in real estate not in country love, not to live in that property, but to reap the benefit and this consequently increase speculation in the market.

          I am also overseas pakistani and now it is our choice whether we want to earn more money or want to give chance to other less previliged class to have their own house. For this, i think there should be some restriction for any person of not having more than 1 or 2 or 3 properties.

          I am a filer for the last five years so become a filer with zero tax is not a problem for overseas pakistanis.

          • Malik

            on said  

            Dear Zahid
            its not the matter to reap the benefit, there is not other option for example if some one has earned money over the years as overseas, what should he do with that. to keep in bank, to buy property overseas or to buy in pak. so best option they consider to invest in pak in real estate.
            2ndly market is running on overseas but rates are maintained in DHA mainly by army officers because they don’t sell their plots quickly or on low rates which are allotted by army as they don’t have dev charges pressure also as they to pay those over the yearsss. u can check the percentage of army plots in each phase.
            your other part of question is regarding the planning, u are right that there must be limit like other countries and if govt brings any rule we will welcome that also but practically no chance in near future. one thing is clear due to NAB and court actions new schemes mostly which are always bogus will b discouraged and existing properties will at least retain their values as population is increasing and same is the demand of houses. More demand and less supply increases the prices.

      • Malik

        on said  

        Volume of transitions is less because there was no clear policy regarding taxes. Govt was playing form last two years with investors. As soon as things become clear u will see the change. its market correction time too as mentioned above but no crash as expected by you.
        kindly name the properties in Dubai which came down 75%?? its down but not the way u are mentioning.

        • Malik
          Volume of transactions is low as no one wants to buy property in the market where property prices are falling.
          Global investors are not stupid to invest in a market where prices are down since 2008.
          Economy is falling, rupee declining, petrol price high. And still property market is stable?
          So for you its best to buy property in Venezuela? As its economy is down and currency is worthless.
          Why bank has been destroyed that was once the main creditor of construction and development works?

          • Malik

            on said  

            My friend as I told you don’t have ” Yes ” word in your dictionary. u set a negative pic and then try your best to convince others. No one is interested to buy in Dubai because things are improving back in their countries like IRAQ, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt and due to recent 5 % percent Vat in dubai, things have changed. they have weak defence and very less local population and market was based on loan, due to these all factors genuine investors prefer now to invest back in their homelands. For your info when rupee falls property increases because overseas can buy same property with less amount.
            I heard that there are ATTAI Doctors in Pakistan but now I can believe that there are ATTAI consultant also.

  10. Zahid Ali

    on said  

    Current situation of Dubai Economy is given in the below article.

    An excerpt of the above mentioned article is given below.

    I wish it ended here. I wish the signs were not as obvious. But they are. Dubai property that used to be sold at 2300 dirhams per square foot is selling at less than 600 dirhams per square foot. Or in simple words, it’s selling at 25% of its value.

    • Zahid Ali
      I have said many times that Pakistan will observe the Dubai style real estate crash.
      Now in Dubai real estate prices are 25% of what they were. Like 4 crore property can be bought in 1 crore.
      Dubai was heaven of black money. There was no question about the source of income. But now international organisation have forced the Dubai to seal the properties and send money back to the country from where they were illegally gotten.
      Same will happen in PAKISTAN.
      Without black money prices are falling.
      Prices started increasing in 2013.
      So we might see the price level of 2013 again.
      For example if a property in Pakistan was worth 1 crore in peak time 2016. So we will see the price fall to 30 LAC in few months.

      • Malik

        on said  

        I don’t think there will be any crash, Market is stagnant and may stay like this for few more years, Crash is due to some reason, after 2,3 Cycles in property market in last 30 years people know who will sell in slump will be a fool. I don’t think you will see significant discount in Near future Neither I think Dollar will be 140, Yes Political situation is uncertain but that will cause no effect on Prices unless some valid legislation is done to discourage real estate holdings which looks unlikely. As PPP is Raiz Malik friendly, IK have two property Tycoon on his left and right and PMLN is always business proponent

      • Sir whats the current situation now.. market is slow but prices are still high. Whats ur say on this.. will prices go down in near future??

        • Mohsin
          This is an older comment 2/3 days back about Pakistan Real Estate Market Situation;
          I was with few dealers of DHA LAHORE;
          Just read their opinion about real estate market after the approval of mini budget 2018;

          Last night I was with few real estate agents.
          I questioned about market situation of DHA Lahore.
          They said haven’t revived any call since the approval of MINI Budget.
          How you see property market in JAN 2019.
          They started looking me like I have said something related to mars.
          We are worried about OCT 2018 and you are asking about 2019.
          Prices down by 25-30% since 2016. But if situation remains the same by NOVEMBER 2018 25% prices will crash.
          Within a month.
          How many properties in DHA we can buy with 5 million?
          Who will dare to register property?
          They finally said they have lost everything including hope.

  11. Hasan

    on said  

    High value properties have certainly taken a serious hit. E.g. in Karachi’s DHA brand new 1000 square yards houses for which asking prices ranged from Rs.25 – 30 crores, are not getting any offers remotely close to asking prices. Usually, at such prices the owners were willing to strike a deal at a discount of around 5 – 8% from asking prices. That would be considered acceptable to them.

    However, the situation now is that they are not getting firm offers at all.

    The tentative offers that are coming in are about 30-35% below asking prices. That is a level which is obviously very shocking to those owners who had invested much higher amounts in properties (over last 2-3 years) and are now unable to even recover invested costs let alone think of profits.

    The ongoing scenario against black money is further depressing prices. It means that after some time high value properties would not even get offers that are 30% below asking prices. Offers, if at all they come, might then be 40 – 50% below asking prices.

    Situation for used 1000 square yards houses is equally bleak. There are people trying to sell their mansions (say about 8 – 12 years old) at about Rs.15 – 16 crores. Their properties have been on market for quite some time without tangible offers. Only now their brokers have started advising them to lower asking prices to Rs.12 crores. But even then it’s anybody’s guess whether any offers would be forthcoming, specially offers that are based on white money.

    My opinion is that the slide has a long way to go. There are hundreds of corrupt people that are on their way to jail. That has become the new reality now. Many are desperate to sell their properties but cannot find buyers (since those buyers are also on their way to jail).

    A naturally occurring property down cycle + these corruption related developments are forces that are shaking the very foundations of artificially inflated values.

    It means that in all likelihood a DHA used 1000 square yards house won’t even sell for Rs.12 crores. In subsequent phases, it would have to go to Rs.7-8 crores as it used to be some years ago. Hence, that would be a 50% discount from asking price of Rs.15 crores.

    (A ‘phase’ is an approximate time period of 4 – 5 months when sellers realize that their asking price is not getting any offers, and they lower it to the next level. So depending on value of property, that next level could be Rs.2-4 crores below previous asking price. Then they check market reaction at that new point for next 4-5 months before going lower still).

    And if a used 1000 square yards house is expected to fall to Rs.7-8 crores, then a brand new one would have to find a place in the region of Rs.15-18 crores or even lower, a far cry from asking prices of Rs.25 – 30 crores.

    The amnesty is not really helping since criminals and politicians are barred from using it anyway. Others simply see it as a trap and stay away. Those who do avail it are already invested in various places and are unlikely to unleash a buying spree that could affect local property market.

    These prices levels could come about either directly by owners selling at heavy discounts now or if they decide not to sell since they have become mentally ‘anchored’ to a high value that does not exist in real world anymore, then by virtue of time value of money. Either way, it’s a crash for high value properties.

    • Hasan
      Thanks for sharing the market latest trends
      PAKISTAN is changing and changing for better
      Old days of SATTA are over
      Real estate sector is stabilizing
      Amnesty scheme has failed and you can see the news in many news papers
      People with illegal money are afraid as they thing amnesty scheme is a mere trap and yes it is time will prove it.
      Crackdown on black money is evident. NAB is trapping the black money guys.
      Real estate prices are down nationwide. Especially the high end properties
      Without black money high end properties have no buyers and people are forced to reduce the prices
      In DHA LAHORE alone property prices are 35% down from peak of 2016.
      Bahria Town Lahore is hit hardest.
      The situation of other posh areas is equally worst.
      Pakistan real estate sector will observe the worst price crash of its history. Property prices of 2016 will fall to just 30% of what they were.
      Like if property was worth 10 million in 2016, in few months it will be selling to 30 LAC.

      • M Anwar

        on said  

        sir, in rwp/isb, prices are still high and going high n high.
        i want to purchase a plot, i have 4 million, but i want to buy in dha 2, prices are more than 1 corore. and u r asking prices are down

  12. muhamamd azeem uddin

    on said  

    Dear sir,
    Appreciate your article and really it is knowledge based, but i am sorry to say that if we talk about practical availability it is not correct. price of property is still same as it was before.

    Prices have increased from 2015 and 2016 just reached 300% higher i mean 80 lakh plot price have reached 240 lakh now .
    it is quite same if you put thermometer on hot water and the temperature shoot up and if you put in sunlight it goes slightly.

    where as i understood ,, may be i have interpenetrated wrongly that due to CEPEC the prices have reached ROCKET HIGH.pakistan property market is in the pace of gambling and nothing else.

    where as question of economic growth i think every one knows it and now we are hearing sound of USD 135 to 140 PKR.

    similarly it is on way of IMF, with in three months.

    • Muhammad Azeem Uddin
      Totally wrong.
      Have you seen any country where economy is falling and house price is increasing.
      According to your analysis there is no food in Venezuela but house price is increasing?
      Decrease in Rupee = Rise of interest rate
      Rise in interest rate = Decrease in house price.
      It is what happened during Musharraf times. Low interest rate property price rise and rise in interest rate fall of property price.
      Record low volume of sale and purchase of properties in PAKISTAN.
      After PANAMA Paper decision who can buy property with illegal money?
      Hey days of real estate sector are over.

    • Malik

      on said  

      Mohammad Azeem
      you are right brother, I will give you my own example. I have a plot in DHA PHASE 9 prism and last year I was getting around 110 lacs, this year in Feb I was getting 108 and yesterday I got an offer of 113 lacs. So there is little effect but not like the blogger says. Blogger is 20/20 player can do anything. property does not crash or increase overnight, if it took 3-4 yrs to go at peak will take same time to come down even all factors of black money etc are said remains the same.
      There is lot of positive hope also with new Govt which seems IK govt , overseas investor will invest back to their country as things are difficult in the whole world now. so people prefer their homeland for investment. Taxes system will be revisited, less taxes with some benefits can change the conditions. CEPEC impact, increasing home demands bkz of increasing population, and mainly there is no other field for investors to invest money other than property. please remember that Dubai investments were 100 prcent loan based and local population is less and they could not regulate it as was promised like 99 yrs wit free visa etc. that’s why it crashed. secondly new buildings were built away from cities and visitors prefer in the heart of cities with nearby metros to avoid traffic rush. I am living here in Dubai from last 22 yrs and know much better. In Pakistan SATTA will be out and should be out, now it will be genuine investments of 5-7 yrs and short term profit chances are less. but no question of property crash like it is painted here.

  13. Sehrish Khan

    on said  

    Dear Sir
    I am regular reader od your blogs.
    I want to buy a home in lahore of 10 Marla.
    As prices are falling I know.
    Please tell me when prices will be low enought to buy again.
    Many thanks for always sharing the true market situation.

    • Sehrish Khan
      The best time to buy property worth more than 50 LAC is the last quarter of 2018.
      By September After BAKRA EID.
      Property prices will hopefully bottom out by September or October.

      • Malik

        on said  

        Sehrish khan
        please do not trust only single source, please check different websites and now you tube channels are also there to get clear information. it is requested to all to do their home work before buying/selling.
        You may visit following sites/ u tube channels.
        Lahore real estate
        E property
        Smart real estate etc etc
        to get lot of info

        • You can certainly check the other sources but real question is whether all of them give you true picture of biased as it impacts their business as well? I regularly read this website and others too but you will not find any content around market crash on any other website because who would want to help clients and shoot in their own feet? food for thought….

          • Malik

            on said  

            dear one can get an idea, from different discussions on different forums.There is always opportunity in crisis also, DHA 9 Town plots gained almost 10-20 lacs in this current year during this dull period also. did this blogger inform anyone? I am overseas investor of DHA mainly and having 5-6 plots/ files. I don’t see any crash so far. property is stagnant from last two yrs and may be will remain in this condition for 1-2 yrs more but no crash expected the way it is mentioned here.
            above comments are not for bogus/ fraud schemes am talking mainly about DHAs. i.e do u think plazas of worth 10 or 15 crore will come down to 5 core and rent will also come down with same ratio. if rent will remain same, then who is mad to sell that one. people will wait during dull period and will not dispose them off so quickly.
            secondly there is property cycle, after every 10 yrs there is boom in property due to many factors. it was in 1995, then 2004/5 then 2014/15 and next is expected in 23/24. so property is min 4-5 yrs investment. One who will buy today will get good gains Insh Allah in 2023/24.
            Only fraud schemes mainly on papers / installments with no proper approval will crash badly due to NAB actions.
            . so there are different opinions and one should do his/ her home work after getting lot of info. one formula does not apply for all properties even in DHA one can not apply it that all will crash or will get boom at same time. it depends on location / status/ conditions / society/ city to judge and give comment that’s why am against the sweeping statements only showing and supporting one sided pic always.

      • Salar Hadar

        on said  

        Bro you have some personal issue comparing dubai to pakistan. Dubai is loan based and i know loan based businesses and properties personally. In Pakistan, an average person lives in a home they own. In Dubai? Why dont you go live there and find out. Stop living in Pakistan and broaden your horizon a little bit before making stupid statements and not citing your work. Did you even a cite a single thing that you have stated in your stupid article? Learn, get knowledge, and most importantly learn to write a good article and stop scaring people. Prices are down? Do they always stay down? Are people of Pakistan going to stop giving birth to children? The population of Pakistan and other countries you talk about have a massive difference and the demographics of this country cannot be compared to DUBAI. A man who owns a house here owns IT HE DID NOT TAKE A LOAN FROM THE BANK TO PAY FOR THAT HOUSE. IT IS A CASH BASED ECONOMY. DUBAI CANADA USA ARE ALL RUN ON LOANS TAKEN BY AVERAGE PEOPLE LIKE US WHO MORTGAGE THEIR HOUSES. HOW MANY PEOPLE IN PAKISTAN MORTGAGE A HOUSE. Get your facts straight, and stop scaring people when you do not have any knowledge that is not backed up by citations. Stop plagiarizing work and worrying other people by making your own biased decisions.

        • Farooq Lari

          on said  

          simple answer brother Salar in recent economic times and situation. How many people do you know can afford to buy or construct house with their hard earned LEGAL money. Just answer this question as to where the price of a 5 marla house in a normal location stands (starting minimum Rs. 80 lacs) and the affordability of middle class earners who are in majority. Do not look towards high-end societies where the new upstarts live with no moral and ethics towards earnings. Try to see the demographics of the country and then see how many population is considered privileged and how much is living life just on the border or below poverty. If you can find and see it through your closed insensitive eyes then you can understand the hardships and toils of a common man whose only source of income is through his/her LEGAL HARD EARNED money from employment/business.


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