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Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2019

Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2019 | Market Analysis Future Trends

The year 2018 was like a nightmare for Pakistan Real Estate Sector. Property market was in constant decline due to the new property laws, political instability and economic meltdown. The situation is still the same at the dawn of 2019. This blog is written after knowing the views of realtors, buyers and sellers about future of Pakistan Real Estate Market. Here is Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2019 Market Analysis that will help everyone in making the right decision about buying or selling the properties.

Pakistan Real Estate Sector is in decline due to low investments:

Real estate sector works on a simple fundamental called as demand and supply. Demand shows the volume of investment whereas supply shows the property stock. The volume of investment in reality sector increases or decreases the demand. High volume of investment in real estate sector increases the property demand that results in high property prices. But low volume of investment decreases the property demand and results in low property prices. Currently there is low property demand in Pakistan as few people are willing to invest in real estate sector. There are many factors that have diverted the investments from real estate sector;

FBR Immovable Property Valuation Rate Increase

Inquiry about source of income; crackdown on black money

Property buying restrictions for Non-filers

Heavy fines on registrars to process the files of non-filers

Foreign Pakistanis restricted to transfer funds before 60 days of purchase

Government’s buying back scheme for properties registered at low rates

High Interest Rate has forced the people to deposit money in banks

Fear of losing money due to the property scams; housing schemes

Start of 5 Million Affordable Homes; NAYA Pakistan Housing Program

Current Property Market Trends:

BUYERS are waiting for the right time to buy properties due to two major reasons. Firstly buyers want to see the outcome of NAB’s investigation of illegal housing schemes. Secondly buyers are waiting for the property prices to bottom out so that they can buy properties at very affordable rates.

SELLERS are of three types. In first category are the sellers who have the holding power and can wait to find the suitable buyers. In second category are the sellers who need cash and are willing to sell properties at loss. In third category are the experienced sellers who know that prices are falling so they are desperate to sell properties immediately to minimize the losses.

REALTORS are in worst situation. 40% estate agents have closed their agencies because of record low incomes. The realtors who became investors have sustained huge losses. Even many have even sold out their cars and homes. Everyday realtors are switching to other businesses due to the disappointing situation of real estate sector.

Future of Real Estate Market:

Pakistan real estate market is witnessing the worst situation since 2005. Property transactions are record low as compared to the peak of 2016. Rising interest rates have greatly reduced the investment in realty sector as people are depositing money in banks to hedge it against inflation. 2019 will be one of the worst years for property sector as economic condition, rising interest rate and strict black money laws are enough to keep the market subdued. Many realtors expect big price fall if situation remains the same.

Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2019 Analysis; PRICE Trends in the Future:

Since 2016 property prices are in constant decline due to economic uncertainty and strict laws to control black money. Prices are already 35% low from the peak of 2016. If we observe the decade property cycle then real estate prices will be record low in 2019 as were in 2009. Pakistan property market situation is similar to Dubai real estate sector where prices have crashed by 75% due to the new laws about sharing the information of investors. As Pakistani property market was also alcoholic of black money, so in the presence of current strict laws prices will further decrease. Estate Agents expect another 35% price fall from the peak of 2016.

RECOMMENDED:
Impact of Mini Budget on Pakistan Real Estate Sector

48 Comments

  1. Haider ali

    on said  

    Dear sir/meddam…. I read all the honourable friends comments about real estate crisis.my opinion for all… Shipt ur investment as soon as possible in two areas 1 stock market 2 saving center….because the govt will regularized the real estate in coming budget and will adopt DC rate with real market price next…they will increase taxes in real estate.due to these taxes real estate business will stoped and go downward and one will buy in single unit due to.
    1.huge taxes
    2.regularization on real estate business
    3.benami account check and balanceree
    4.huge intrast rates means discount rates
    5.less demond of real estate buyer
    6.naya pakistan housing project
    7.low ecnomic activites
    8.depreciation of Pak Rupees
    Etc
    Therefore my openion for all those invester who are directlly involled in real estate save ur money in other sector …stock market and saving center

    Reply
    • Haider Ali
      Your views are excellent.
      Pakistan property prices are in free fall.
      Peak property price of 2016 will revive only by 2025.
      New taxes and valuation rates will further slow down real estate market.

      Reply
  2. Abdul Saboor

    on said  

    when real estate business will be back as it was in past will it remain stable like this or again the real estate agents can get the same profit which they are gaining before

    Reply
  3. Abdul Saboor
    It is not only happening with you with everyone.
    Market is in worst condition.
    Due to crackdown on black money, struck property laws and high interest rates it is hard to find the buyers.

    Reply
  4. Noor Khan

    on said  

    Ghar47
    My uncle is dealer in DHA Islamabad. He says market is almost dead. I want to buy a home but he advises to wait as prices are constantly falling.
    So;
    What Is 2019 Offering to The Future of Pakistan Real Estate Market?
    Please give you view on, Pakistan Real Estate Forecast 2019 Analysis Future Trends Predictions.
    TY.

    Reply
    • Noor Khan
      Its true that market is down because of;
      1-Crackdown on black money
      2-Non-filer property buying restriction
      3-Benami Law enforcement
      4-Increase of property valuation rates by FBR
      5-NAB Investigation of illegal housing schemes and real estate scams.

      2019 PAKISTAN REAL ESTATE MARKET PREDICTIONS FORECAST TRENDS ANALYSIS:

      Like economic cycles there are real estate cycles too. Normally these cycle are of 10 years. In 2009 property prices in Pakistan were record low. So according to 10 years cycle, 2019 will be a bad year for Pakistan Property Market.
      Better to wait as prices are constantly declining. Let the prices bottom out first before making a move.

      Reply
      • JUST PLEASE EXPLAIN THAT HOW THIS WILL IMPACT ON PROPERTY AND WHAT IS MEANING OF THIS RATE/VALUATION PER MARLA OR SQUARE YARDS

        Reply
        • M ANWAR
          FBR has increased property valuation rates on 1st of February 2019.
          Property valuation rates are used to calculate the taxes on sale and purchase of property.
          Buyers and sellers will now pay taxes as per new FBR RATES.
          When valuation rates are increased, taxes also increase. Now buyers and sellers will pay more taxes on buying and selling of real estate. This had made buying and selling more expensive and volume of transactions has reduced.
          This leads to low property prices as less people will invest in reality sector.

          Reply
  5. Aurangzaib

    on said  

    Yesterday I read on PAK Observer that FBR has decided to Register Estate Agents. A step by government to regulate real estate sector.

    Reply
  6. Asim Munir

    on said  

    Good work done by the author! Economy is such a diverse subject that hardly two economists can agree on same thing and real estate market isn’t an exception. Prices of anything in modern economies depend upon the “supply of money”. Inflation and deflation are totally monetary phenomena now. People invest their money in the sector that gives them more incentives (profit is the most important incentive among others). Longer the incentives in a sector, bigger the bubble in that sector becomes, which bursts and correction occurs. At correction, investors move to some other sector and the same natural cycles go on and on one after another. These cycles affect different people differently. A genuine home buyer is looking for a home or plot in a developed area where prices hardly fall. A speculator buying files in underdeveloped area is in panic and suffering loss as development halts. A real estate agent suffers the most as few investors and genuine home buyers keep on buying and wholesale investors don’t buy property. Whatever be the situation property is a commodity that never becomes zero in value. Top 10 cities in Pakistan are observing unprecedented rate of urbanization. And more than 50% of Pakistan’s population would be looking for homes in a decade or two. With increasing population and increasing urbanization, real sector sector in Pakistan won’t see kind of collapse compared to other countries where population growth isn’t strong and they already are urbanized the most. Invest in well-selected real estate with confidence in properties that are in the range of middle class and you would never repent.

    Reply
    • Can tell you about DHA Karachi, plot that was being sold for 14 crore 6-10 months ago now sellers are asking 12 crore and are not even being able to sell for 10-11 crore. Any deal if being materialize is not above 9-9.5 crore. Of course estate agents are trying their best and giving 30%-40% higher rates on internet/property websites or if you ask them, as majority of them have also become investors in real estate and are now badly stuck….

      Reply
  7. Nadeem Zahar DHA Dealer

    on said  

    Asad Umar’s Mini Budget 2019 has failed to provide relief for real estate sector.
    Property prices will now fall big time.
    Now more dealers will leave the market.

    Reply
    • Nadeem Zahar DHA Dealer
      Real Estate Property Prices in Pakistan will keep falling.
      Pakistan Reality Market will remain subdued for many years to come.
      No revival can be seen before 2022-23.
      Property prices will be record low in 2019-2020.

      Reply
  8. Farooq Lari

    on said  

    Malik sb.
    Reading your rather subdued replies above towards future property prices, I think that you have also given up hope for a nosedive in property prices. This is the dealers’ world out there and us consumers are merely pawns who have to pay out money to buy plot according to the price set by dealers.
    Your latest reply above to Nadeem Zahar nullify your previous responses full of conviction of declining prices as you used the words “MAYBE and LETS SEE what 2019 brings”.
    This means that all our waiting for the past 6 months was in vain and there will be further increase in price when we go out to buy plot/land (e.g. in Lake City or Bahria Town etc.). This means that the dealers’ have won the game and consumers have lost out now.
    Regards

    Reply
      • Muhammad azeem uddin

        on said  

        Dear sir

        You are giving reference a developed country which are being stand on laws.

        Kindly try to understand the real picture in Pakistan that
        Export is downward govt debt reaches the level no money to pay Mark up.GDP just touching 1947 level around 3.2. AND PROPERTY PRICES SOARING … UNLIMITED.

        Those reader who have followed your advises have lost or they are out of the reach to buy.

        First you say PANAMA will reduce property .. the say SC action on corruption.. then NAB. then..New govt IMRANI.. then .. NAYA housing scheme… BUT ALL YOUR PREDICTION ….

        Now it depends up on reader…..

        Reply
        • Malik sb is giving hopes to people from many years but nothing happened.
          People like me who were waiting for good time on the advice of malik sb have missed the train. Due to the devaluation of PKR 15 million in the bank automatically became 11 million in the past 2 years. Property prices are the same.
          Everyone is in panic. No business, no economic activity in Pakistan.
          Hope for the best.

          Reply
          • Zahid Ali

            on said  

            Dear Mr. Fraz

            The devaluation of Pak Rupee is affecting the purchasing power of people for all other items (especially imported items) except real estate. The person having 15 million rupees in bank still have 15 million rupees in bank (although dollar term, the amount depreciated) and if property price is not increased (I am sure that property price is not increased in most part of the country) after devaluation then he/she can purchase the property in same price.

          • muhamamd azeem uddin

            on said  

            Dear Fraz bhai,
            Last six months if you have read my views ,, i write that save money on USD not PKR, and if possible then busy your money on business,

            i am sorry to say that you dont have knowledge how can YOUR MONEY WORK FOR YOU.

            that is why you lost money.

            Keep in mind that if you want to become rich then you must have knowledge how your money work hard for you.

  9. Shaista lodhi

    on said  

    Sir,
    Second MIni Budget will be live on 23rd of Jan 2019.
    My question is how real estate market will perform if;
    1- Government announces Amnesty Scheme for Property Sector
    2- Government removes non filer property buying limits
    Please tell us your views in regard to 2 above questions.
    TY

    Reply
    • Shaista Lodhi
      Whatever is the government policy, property prices will fall and the year 2019 will be the nightmare for Pakistan Real Sector.

      PROPERTY PRICE DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS LIKE
      1- INTEREST RATE
      2- ECONOMIC CONDITION
      3- JOB CREATION IN A COUNTRY
      4- GLOBAL TRENDS

      The most important of all factors is the interest rate. When interest rate is high property prices decline and vice versa.
      Currently in Pakistan interest rate is @ 10%, so in double figure.
      During the last crash of 2006 in Pakistan interest was increased from 7.5% to 9% and property prices collapsed.
      Even at that time there were no restrictions on buying property.
      Actually when interest rate is high people deposit money in banks to earn profits whereas real estate prices fall.

      NON-FILER LAWS OR AMNESTY SCHEME Can’t save the sinking ship; Pakistan Real Estate Sector.
      Prices in Pakistan will keep decreasing unless interest rates start decreasing. Whereas real situation is clear we will see only interest rate rise in 2019/20. So no chance of property price increase even if government offers another amnesty scheme or removes the non filer property buying restriction.

      Reply
  10. Farooq Lari

    on said  

    Malik sb.
    Reading your rather subdued replies above towards future property prices, I think that you have also given up hope for a nosedive in property prices. This is the dealers’ world out there and us consumers are merely pawns who have to pay out money to buy plot according to the price set by dealers.
    Your latest reply above to Nadeem Zahar nullify your previous responses full of conviction of declining prices as you used the words “MAYBE and LETS SEE what 2019 brings”.
    This means that all our waiting for the past 6 months was in vain and there will be further increase in price when we go out to buy plot/land (e.g. in Lake City or Bahria Town etc.). This means that the dealers’ have won the game and consumers have lost out now.
    Regards

    Reply
    • Zahid Ali

      on said  

      Apart from time value of money, there are few other factors which may have impact on property prices.

      1) How much interest rate will increase further in 2019. If state bank discout rate increases to 14% then NSC rate may go upto 16%. Therefore more money will go in fixed deposits instead of real estate. Remember, only geniune buyer love to buy property, while investor always hungry to earn more profit whethet in fixed deposit or in business or in real estate.

      2) Job opportunities are worst in middle east nowdays. Pakistan lower and middle income class working in middle east are becomming less and less in numbers who purchase property first time in Pakistan for their family. Therefore less investment is expected in real estate from that part of society.

      3) Global recession are on the way and it may hit the world in 2019 or 2020. The property market is slowong down in most part of the world. Since the earning/profit of individuals and institutions/companies are so much interdependent on one another countries, therefore cascading effect global recession may be seen on the housing market of Pakistan.

      Apart from the above factors, there are so many other factors which ghar47 have been mentioning time to time.

      Last but not least, time vlaue of money is the most important factor. The real eastate purchase in 2019 in 4 crore should have a value of 8 crore in 2024 in order to recover the time value of money, otherwise the purchaser will be in loss, as far as time value of money is concerned.

      Reply
      • Zahid Ali
        You have explained every factor that impacts the real estate market. Property prices in Dubai are still falling and same is true about all major markets across the world.

        PAKISTAN REAL ESTATE FORECAST 2019 | PRICE TRENDS | MARKET ANALYSIS

        If we observe the old trends then we can see that first markets to go down in 2006-8 were Pakistan and Dubai before the worldwide property market crash.
        In Pakistan investors have already lost lot of money because of 35% property price from peak of 2016, inflation and currency devaluation.
        When interest rates increase people deposit money in banks for good returns instead of real estate sector.
        CURRENTLY THERE IS NO BUYER IN THE MARKET but banks are busy.

        Meanwhile global recession is upon us as prices are falling everywhere;

        Global real estate hot spots hit hard by market shift
        https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

        PROPERTY PRICES ARE FALLING GLOBALLY
        https://www.marketsandmoney.com.au/property-prices-are-falling-globally/2019/01/07/

        PAKISTAN WILL BE THE WORST HIT MARKET OF 2019 IN THE WORLD.

        Reply
    • Nadeem Zahar DHA Dealer
      LETS SEE; What Is 2019 Offering to The Future of Pakistan Real Estate Market.
      Yes if we observe the decade real estate cycle then 2019 will be the year when property market will be down in Pakistan as was in 2009.
      Interest rates were high in 2009 and so are expected to remain in double digit in 2019.
      Interest rate always decreases the property prices and vice versa.

      Reply
  11. We have been looking for a 500 yard plot in Khi DHA or house but the asking price for a house is still 10 and plot 5c
    When will the price come down and how much do we expect the price of 10 c house to come down to
    Everyone says that the prices will not come down even the rents are still high

    Reply
    • Ali
      Wait is better as interest rate is constantly increasing.
      High prices are just the tactics of dealers otherwise property prices are under pressure due to low demand.
      Hard to find filer buyers at the moment.

      Reply
      • DEAR SIR, FROM LAST 2 YEARS UR ASKING THAT PRICES WILL FALL, BUT IN ACTUAL, PRICES ARE INCREASING. U R NOT SHOWING THE REAL PIC F THE SITUATION.

        Prices are increasing day by day in isb

        Reply
  12. Manzoor hussain

    on said  

    Sir
    Many thanks for the accurate analysis and forecast of Pakistan Property Market in 2019.
    Your analysis about real estate prices is much appreciated.

    Reply
    • Manzoor Hussain
      PAKISTAN REAL ESTATE FORECAST 2019 – TRENDS ANALYSIS PREDICTIONS FORECAST;
      This blog is written after discussion with real estate dealers.
      Their first hand knowledge about property market, buyer and sellers is valuable.
      I have never seen dealers as disappointed as they are now.
      Many top brands have closed their agencies recently.

      Reply
  13. Nadeem Zahar DHA Dealer

    on said  

    GHARR7 Team
    Also write about our problems.
    We dealers are in very bad situation.
    Dealers are closing offices everyday because of record low incomes

    Reply
  14. muhamamd azeem uddin

    on said  

    Dear malik sahab,
    The article you have write is quite good and knowledge based according to to economic laws but can not support ground realities and practical plan of action.

    i mean their is no reduction of 35% price at all if i talk about karachi. Though PKR are being devalued 35% and those perople who have deposit their money in bank or they have their money in circulation they have lost 35%.

    If someone want to buy property either plot or home the prices are jumped 20% more from last 3 months.

    i have meet many real estate agent and all of them having same views that their is no chance to go price downward , price could stagnant but can not go downward.

    when i have told all these what you have write in article then real esate agent just laugh and have said me that during last 10 years property prices hike not come down. In Pakistan people are crazy to buy the land and their is no comparison the rate of return from real esate business. so retailer, wholesaler, dealer, distributor, indenters, manufacturer, and traders, all have invested in property market and they are just running their existence business. They are not reinvesting the money of their existence business because all of them think that they can make more money on real estate business as compared to their existence business.

    Yesterday i have meet one big builder who told me that WHATEVER PRICE THEY ASK PEOPLE ARE READY TO BUY.
    it means their is big demand in the market and builder are making money. The builder have a factory of textile and now he has closed it. He also told me that the money he has make in real estate just 10 years he can not make money to run textile mills even in 30 years.

    Any way lets see what happen in future.

    Reply

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